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By David F. Hendry
By Mary S. Morgan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print Publication Year:1995
Online Publication Date:June 2012
Online ISBN:9781139170116
Hardback ISBN:9780521380430
Paperback ISBN:9780521588706
Book DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139170116
Subjects: Econometrics and Mathematical Methods
In this compelling book, David Hendry and Mary Morgan bring together the classic papers of the pioneer econometricians, some of which have never been published before. Together, these papers form the foundations of econometric thought. They are essential reading for anyone seeking to understand the aims, method and methodology of econometrics and the development of this statistical approach in economics. An editorial commentary places the readings in their historical context and indicates the continuing relevance of these early, yet highly sophisticated, works for current econometric analysis.
Reviews:
pp. i-vi
pp. vii-x
pp. xi-xii
pp. xiii-xvi
pp. 1-77
pp. 78-82
I - The Emerging Role of Econometrics in Economics: Read PDF
pp. 83-84
1 - The Scope and Method of Political Economy (Macmillan, London, 1891, pp. 313–14, 320–31): Read PDF
pp. 85-90
2 - Business Cycles (California University Memoirs, vol. III, Berkeley, 1913, pp. 19–20, 449–51): Read PDF
pp. 91-94
3 - Economic Cycles – Their Law and Cause (Macmillan, New York, 1914, pp. 66–8, 84–8 (cut)): Read PDF
pp. 95-97
4 - An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science (Macmillan, London, 1932, pp. 98–105): Read PDF
pp. 98-102
5 - The Common Sense of Econometrics (Econometrica, vol. 1, 1933, pp. 5–12): Read PDF
pp. 103-110
II - Early Time-Series Analysis: Read PDF
pp. 111-112
6 - On the Study of Periodic Commercial Fluctuations (Read to the British Association in 1862, and in Investigations in Currency and Finance, Macmillan, 1884, pp. 3–10 and plates): Read PDF
pp. 113-121
7 - Correlation of the Marriage-Rate with Trade (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64, 1901, pp. 485–92): Read PDF
pp. 122-129
8 - The Correlation of Economic Statistics (Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 12, 1910, pp. 289–94, 306–17 (cut)): Read PDF
pp. 130-140
9 - Why do we sometimes get Nonsense Correlations between Time-Series? (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, vol. 89, 1926, pp. 2–9, 30–41): Read PDF
pp. 141-158
10 - On a Method of Investigating Periodicities in Disturbed Series, with Special Reference to Wolfer's Sunspot Numbers (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, A, vol. 226, 1927, pp. 267–73): Read PDF
pp. 159-165
11 - A Random-Difference Series for Use in the Analysis of Time Series (Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 29,934, pp. 11–24 (data cut)): Read PDF
pp. 166-174
12 - Calculation and Elimination of Seasonal Fluctuations [Berechnung und Ausschaltung von Saisonschwankungen] (Julius Springer, Vienna, 1936, chap. 1): Read PDF
pp. 175-179
13 - Morgenstern on the Methodology of Economic Forecasting (Journal of Political Economy, vol. 37, 1929, pp. 312–17, 320–3, 326–37 (cut)): Read PDF
pp. 180-190
III - Applied Econometrics and the Identification Problem: Read PDF
pp. 191-192
14 - The Elasticity of the Demand for Wheat (Economic Journal, vol. 24, 1914, pp. 212–17): Read PDF
pp. 193-197
15 - Economic Cycles – Their Law and Cause (Macmillan, New York, 1914, pp. 68–80): Read PDF
pp. 198-205
16 - Review of Moore, ‘Economic Cycles’ (Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 29, 1915, pp. 631–41 (cut)): Read PDF
pp. 206-213
17 - Variation of Supply and Demand Curves: Influences on Prices (Etudes sur la Formation et le Mouvement des Prix, Paris, 1913, pp. 56–62): Read PDF
pp. 214-217
18 - A Moving Equilibrium of Demand and Supply (Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 39, 1925, pp. 359–60, 364–71): Read PDF
pp. 218-224
19 - Review of Schultz, ‘Statistical Laws of Demand and Supply’ (Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 24, 1929, pp. 207–15): Read PDF
pp. 225-232
20 - Determination and Interpretation of Supply Curves: An Example [Bestimmung und Deutung von Angebotskurven. Ein Beispiel] (Zeitschrift fur Nationalokonomie, vol. 1, 1930, pp. 669–79): Read PDF
pp. 233-246
IV - The Evolution of Statistical Thinking in Econometrics: Read PDF
pp. 247-248
21 - Statistical Laws of Demand and Supply with Special Application to Sugar (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1928, pp. 27–39): Read PDF
pp. 249-256
22 - ‘Pitfalls’ Debate (Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 48, 1934, pp. 355–61, 749–51, 755–66): Read PDF
pp. 257-270
23 - Statistical Confluence Analysis by Means of Complete Regression Systems (University Institute of Economics, Oslo, 1934, pp. 5–8): Read PDF
pp. 271-273
24 - Linear Regression Analysis of Economic Time Series (Netherlands Economic Institute, Haarlem, 1937, pp. 1–10, 54–63, 129–32): Read PDF
pp. 274-291
25 - Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories: A Method and Its Application to Investment Activity (League of Nations, Geneva, 1939, vol. I, pp. 27–33): Read PDF
pp. 292-298
26 - Residual Variables in Regression and Confluence Analysis (Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift, vol. 28, 1945, pp. 201–10): Read PDF
pp. 299-306
pp. 307-308
27 - Our Unstable Dollar and the So-Called Business Cycle (Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 20, 1925, pp. 181–91, 194–8): Read PDF
pp. 309-321
28 - The Notions of Horizon and Expectancy in Dynamic Economics (Econometrica, vol. 1, 1933, pp. 247–52, 259–64): Read PDF
pp. 322-332
29 - Propagation Problems and Impulse Problems in Dynamic Economics (in Economic Essays in Honour of Gustav Cassel, Allen & Unwin, London, 1933, pp. 171–3, 181–90, 197–203): Read PDF
pp. 333-346
30 - Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories: Business Cycles in the United States of America, 1919–1932 (League of Nations, Geneva, 1939, vol. II, pp. 13–20): Read PDF
pp. 347-351
31 - Statistical Estimation of Economic Relationships (read to the International Statistical Conferences, Washington, 1947. Proceedings published as a supplement to Econometrica, vol.17, 1949, pp. 6–9): Read PDF
pp. 352-354
32 - Prolegomena to a Pressure-Analysis of Economic Phenomena (Metroeconomica, vol. 1, 1949, pp. 135, 139–42): Read PDF
pp. 355-358
VI - The Tinbergen Debate: Read PDF
pp. 359-360
33 - Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories: A Method and its Application to Investment Activity (League of Nations, Geneva, 1939, vol. I, pp. 34–43, 47–64): Read PDF
pp. 361-381
34 - Professor Tinbergen's Method (Review of Tinbergen (1939), vol. I, Economic Journal vol. 49, 1939, pp. 558–68): Read PDF
pp. 382-389
35 - Mr Keynes on the Statistical Verification of Business Cycle Theories (unpublished, 1940): Read PDF
pp. 390-398
36 - Econometric Business Cycle Research (Review of Economic Studies, vol. 7, 1940, pp. 73–80): Read PDF
pp. 399-406
37 - Autonomy of Economic Relations (League of Nations Memorandum, 1938) and J. Tinbergen's reply (both unpublished): Read PDF
pp. 407-424
VII - Structure and Simultaneity: Read PDF
pp. 425-426
38 - Economic Interdependence and Statistical Analysis (in Studies in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics – In Memory of Henry Schultz, O. Lange et al. (eds.), University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1942, pp. 135–50): Read PDF
pp. 427-439
39 - The Probability Approach in Econometrics (Supplement to Econometrica, vol. 12, 1944, pp. 12–17, 26–31, 33–9): Read PDF
pp. 440-453
40 - The Statistical Implications of a System of Simultaneous Equations (Econometrica, vol. 11, 1943, pp. 1–12): Read PDF
pp. 454-463
41 - Statistical Estimation of Economic Relationships (read to the International Statistical Conferences, Washington, 1947. Proceedings published as a supplement to Econometrica, vol. 17, 1949, pp. 9–21): Read PDF
pp. 464-474
VIII - The Probabilistic Revolution: Read PDF
pp. 475-476
42 - The Probability Approach in Econometrics (Supplement to Econometrica, vol. 12, 1944, pp. iii–iv, 1–11, 49–52, 114–15): Read PDF
pp. 477-490
43 - ‘Measurement without Theory’ Debate (Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 29, 1947, pp. 161–72 (cut); vol. 31, 1949, pp. 77–93 (cut); and Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 46, 1951, pp. 388–90): Read PDF
pp. 491-524
pp. 525-526
44 - When is an Equation System Complete for Statistical Purposes? (in Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, T. C. Koopmans (ed.), Cowles Commission Monograph 10, Wiley, New York, 1950, pp. 393–409): Read PDF
pp. 527-537
45 - Towards Partial Redirection of Econometrics by Orcutt, Comments by Koopmans and Actions, Consequences, and Causal Relations by Orcutt (Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 34, 1952, pp. 196–9, 201–5 (cut), 309–13): Read PDF
pp. 538-551
pp. 552-558