Advances in Decision Analysis

From Foundations to Applications

By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts. Not a single book covers the broad scope of decision analysis at this advanced level. It will be a valuable resource for academics and students in decision analysis as well as decision analysts and managers

Reference Title: REFERENCES

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von Neumann, J., and Morgenstern, O. (1944, 1947). Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. (I read parts of this epic book in 1949 working for my Office of Naval Research Contract on submarine detection. My first introduction to utility theory.)
Wald, A. (1947). Sequential analysis. New York: John Wiley. (A quasi-decision oriented book that I studied alone in 1948 as a student in statistics.)
Wald, A. (1950). Statistical decision theory. New York: McGraw-Hill. (The pioneering book that sets up the statistical decision paradigm. I read this book as soon as it appeared and gave a series of seminars on it for the statistical seminar at the University of Michigan.)
Raiffa, H. (1951). Arbitration schemes for generalized two-person games. Report M-720–1, R30 Engineering Research Institute, University of Michigan. (Unpublished report written for an ONR contract that became the basis for my doctoral dissertation.)
Chernoff, H. (1954). Rational selection of decision functions. Econometrica, 22. (Chernoff makes use of the sure-thing principle of Herman Rubin that I adopt as one of my basic axioms in my struggle with foundations of statistics. It helped convert me into the subjectivist school.)
Savage, L. J. (1954). The foundations of statistics. New York: John Wiley. Revised 2nd edition in 1972. New York: Dover Publications. (The “bible” of the Bayesians.)
Luce, R. D., & Raiffa, H. (1957). Games and decisions: Introduction and critical survey. New York: John Wiley. Republished by Dover. (Reports on much of the unpublished results in my engineering report (1951). It compares the objectivist and subjectivist foundations of probability, but it doesn't openly endorse the Bayesian camp.)
Grayson, J. C. (1960). Decisions under uncertainty: Drilling decisions by oil and gas operators. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School. (This dissertation that I supervised made me realize that the statistical decision theory paradigm was too confining and I shifted from being a “statistical decision theorist” to being a “managerial economist.”)
Schlaifer, R. O., and Raiffa, H. (1961). Applied statistical decision theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Republished in Wiley Classic Library Series (2000). (It introduces families of conjugate distribution that make it easy to go from prior distribution to posterior distributions and shows that Bayesianism can be made operational.)
Pratt, J. W., Raiffa, H., and Schlaifer, R. O. (1965). Introduction to statistical decision theory. Distributed by McGraw-Hill in mimeographic form. Published in finished form by MIT Press, New York, 1995. (A textbook version of ASDT. While widely adopted in mimeographic, unfinished form, it was not finished until 1995.)
Howard, R. A. (1966). Decision analysis: Applied decision theory. In Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Operational Research, New York: John Wiley. Reprinted in Howard & Matheson (1983). (First published paper referring to decision analysis and outlining its applicability.)
Raiffa, H. (1968). Decision Analysis: Introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty. Reading, MA: Addison Wesley. Reprinted in 1970. (Documents the paradigmatic shift from statistical decision theory to decision analysis.)
Raiffa, H. (1969). Preference for multi-attributed alternatives. RM-5868-DOT/RC. Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation. (Earlier versions of this report were circulated in 1967 and influenced the early work by Keeney alone and with me.)
Raiffa, H. (1973). Analysis for decision making. An audiographic, self-instructional course. Ten volumes. Encyclopedia Britannica Educational Corp. Revised and republished by Learn, Inc. (1985).
Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa. H. (1976). Decisions with multiple objectives: Preferences and value tradeoffs. New York: John Wiley. Republished by Cambridge University Press, New York, 1993. (First serious attempt to develop analytical techniques for the value side of decision problems. Introduces ideas of preferential and utility independence.)
Nuclear Energy Policy Study. (1977). Nuclear power issues and choices. Pensacola, FL: Ballinger Publishing. (A model of a group policy exercise on an important, current, complex problem.)
Fisher, R., and Ury, W. (1981). Getting to yes: Negotiating agreement without giving in. New York: Houghton-Mifflin. Republished by Penguin Books, New York, 1983. (Helps establish the field of negotiations as a growth industry. Sold close to 4 million copies. Emphasis is on negotiating joint gains.)
Raiffa, H. (1982). The art and science of negotiation. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. (Early attempt to show how analysis can be an integral part of the theory and practice of negotiations.)
The Committee on Risk and Decision Making (CORADM). (1982). Report for the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences. (Unpublished report on the status of societal risk analysis that failed to pass peer review. Chair: Howard Raiffa.)
Howard, R. A., and Matheson, J. (Eds.). (1983). The principles and applications of decision analysis. Vol. I: General collection. Vol. II: Professional collection. Menlo Park, CA: Strategic Decisions Group. (Documents the impressive evolution of decision analysis as it developed at Stanford by Ronald Howard and his student disciples.
Keeney, R. L. (1992). Value-Focused thinking: A path to creative decisionmaking. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. (Stresses the importance of objectives and values in analyzing problems of choice. I think of it as an often neglected and much undeveloped part of decision analysis. Ralph Keeney thinks of it as a new specialty of its own that is separate from decision analysis.)
Lavalle, I. H. (1996). The art and science of Howard Raiffa. In Zeckhauser, R. J., Keeney, R. L., and Sebenius, J. K. (Eds.). Wise choices: Decisions, games, and negotiations. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Zeckhauser, R. J., Keeney, R. L., and Sebenius, J. K. (Eds.). (1996). Wise choices: Decisions, games, and negotiations. Boston, MA: Harvard University Press. (Festschrift in honor of Howard Raiffa.)
Hammond, John S., Keeney, R. L., and Raiffa, H. (1999). Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press. (An attempt to show the universality of decision analysis, broadly interpreted to include value analysis. An emphasis on problem identification and formation. Written for a broad audience. What should have been included in Raiffa (1968) but wasn't.)
Raiffa, H. (2002). Negotiation Analysis: The Science and Art of Collaborative Decision Making. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2002. (With J. Richardson and D. Metcalfe) (A revision of Raiffa (1982) stressing the analysis of deals in contrast to disputes. It synthesizes the use of individual decision making (as in decision analysis), interactive decision making (as in game theory), and behavioral decision making in the analysis of negotiations (broadly interpreted).)

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